|Table of Contents|

Prediction of Coupling and Coordination Between Urbanization and Eco-environment of Urban Agglomerations in Yellow River Basin, China(PDF)

《地球科学与环境学报》[ISSN:1672-6561/CN:61-1423/P]

Issue:
2021年第05期
Page:
887-896
Research Field:
水资源与环境
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Prediction of Coupling and Coordination Between Urbanization and Eco-environment of Urban Agglomerations in Yellow River Basin, China
Author(s):
SUN Bin;  XU Wei;  XUE Jian-chun;  HOU Si-jie
(School of Economics and Management, Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology, Baotou 014010, Inner Mongolia, China)
Keywords:
urban agglomeration;  urbanization;  eco-environment;  coupling coordination;  prediction;  ARIMA model;  BP neural network model;  Yellow River basin
PACS:
F291.1; X196
DOI:
10.19814/j.jese.2021.05033
Abstract:
The stress effects of urbanization on eco-environment and the restraint effects of eco-environment on urbanization are accumulated and long-termed. In response to the lag problems based on historical data, taking 7 urban agglomerations including Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin, along Yellow River in Ningxia, Lanzhou-Xining, Guanzhong Plain, Zhongyuan, Shandong Peninsula and Jinzhong in Yellow River basin as the basic research units, the urbanization and eco-environment evaluation index system and coupling coordination model of urban agglomerations in Yellow River basin during 2000-2019 were constructed, and an ARIMA-BP combination model to predict future trends was established. The results show that coupling coordination degrees of urban agglomerations in Yellow River basin are rising, and some urban agglomerations show fluctuation values; the coupling coordination characterized by mild disorder and endangered turns into barely coordinated and primary coordinated; for the next 6 years forecast, the coupling coordination degrees of 7 urban agglomerations show an upward trend in the future, but there are certain differences, some urban agglomerations still fail to break through mild coordination to reach more ideal coupling phases in 2025. In the future, the core competitiveness of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration should be continuously improved, Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration and Zhongyuan urban agglomeration should be promoted for the growth of secondary small and medium-sized cities, and special attention should be paid to the water and soil erosion caused by the development of Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin urban agglomeration and Jinzhong urban agglomeration. Besides, urban agglomeration along Yellow River in Ningxia and Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration should strengthen the urbanization and ecological environment protection, and make up for the shortcomings in the development to realize the coordinated development of the urban agglomerations in the river basin as soon as possible.

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Last Update: 2021-09-30