|Table of Contents|

Multi-scenarios Simulation of Ningxia Land Use in China Based on SD-FLUS Model(PDF)

《地球科学与环境学报》[ISSN:1672-6561/CN:61-1423/P]

Issue:
2023年第04期
Page:
806-818
Research Field:
环境与可持续发展专刊
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Multi-scenarios Simulation of Ningxia Land Use in China Based on SD-FLUS Model
Author(s):
GENG Si-xiao1;  YANG Zhi2;  DANG Xiao-hu1*;  SUI Bo-yang1;  CAO Xiao-shu3; 4;  LI Peng5; 6;  ZHENG Zhi-yu1
(1. College of Geology and Environment, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710054, Shaanxi, China; 2. Ningxia Soil and Water Conservation Monitoring Station, Yinchuan 750002, Ningxia, China; 3. Natual Resources and National Land Use Research Institute, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710062, Shaanxi, China; 4. Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Environment Simulator in Northwest China, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710062, Shaanxi, China; 5. State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Gegion of China, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, Shaanxi, China; 6. Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration on Ecological Hydrology and Disaster Prevention in Arid Regions, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, Shaanxi, China)
Keywords:
land use;  multi-scenario simulation;  SD-FLUS model;  SSP-RCP pathway;  ecological protection;  high-quality development;  Ningxia
PACS:
X321; F301.2
DOI:
-
Abstract:
Land use change has a significant impact on regional development and ecological quality. The land use change in Ningxia from 2005 to 2020 was analyzed; and based on the scenarios of CMIP6 shared socioeconomic pathways and the representative concentration pathways(SSP-RCP), the system dynamics(SD)model and future land use simulation(FLUS)model were integrated to simulate the possible land use change of Ningxia in 2035. The results show that ① compared to the land use changes in the historical periods, the area error for the land use simulated by SD model is less than 5%, and the overall accuracy of FLUS model for the land use in 2020 is 93% with the Kappa index of 0.90, indicating that the model accuracy and robustness are satisfactory. ② The construction land areas simulated under all scenarios increase, and the scenarios are SSP585, SSP245 and SSP119 in the descending order of growth rate; the simulated area of forest increases with a constant water area and a reduced area of grassland in 2035; the simulated area of cultivated land increases under SSP585 scenario, remains stable under SSP245 scenario, and decreases under SSP119 scenario. ③ Under SSP119 scenario, the construction land expands with the least loss of ecological land, which takes a trade-off of socio-economic development and ecological protection into account, thus can be used as a reference paradigm for future land use in Ningxia, which is the pilot area of ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.

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Last Update: 2023-06-20