|Table of Contents|

Seismogenic Law and Mode of Strong Earthquakes(PDF)

《地球科学与环境学报》[ISSN:1672-6561/CN:61-1423/P]

Issue:
2011年第03期
Page:
311-316
Research Field:
应用地球物理
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Seismogenic Law and Mode of Strong Earthquakes
Author(s):
QIN Si-qing1; XIONG Ju-hua2; XUE Lei1; HUANG Xin1; WANG Yuan-yuan1; PAN Xiao-hua1
1. Key Laboratory of Engineering Geomechanics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; 2. School of Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
Keywords:
locked patch;  prediction of strong earthquake;  seismogenic mode;  earthquake swarm event;  Weibull distribution model;  earthquake
PACS:
P315
DOI:
-
Abstract:
Aiming at whether the strong earthquake can be predicted and how to predict, the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system is developed. An exponential law describing the seismogenic process of strong earthquakes(sf(k)=1.48ksc)is found where sf(k)and sc are cumulative Benioff strain corresponding to the rupture point of the kth locked patch and dilation point of the first locked patch respectively, k is the number of locked patches. In other words, the oncoming strong earthquake can be predicted by utilizing the earthquake swarm events(accelerating seismicity precursor)produced in the dilatancy onset point of locked patch. Furthermore, associated prediction method, including the magnitude, place, critical strain(corresponding to the occurrence time of earthquake), and the hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake are provided based on this new method. Then many earthquakes(such as Xingtai Earthquake, Haicheng Earthquake, Wenchuan Earthquake, Yushu Earthquake and so on)were retrospectively analyzed. The results indicate that the seismogenic process of strong earthquake obeys a simple mechanic law. The seismogenic mode can be classified into the following four types: large-small-large earthquake magnitude mode in a siesmogenic period, continuously rising large earthquake magnitude mode in an earthquake sequence, quickly and continuously fracturing mode of multiple locked patches, and standard earthquake mode. Moreover, the future research focus in the earthquake relief is also suggested.

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Last Update: 2011-09-20