|Table of Contents|

Improvement of GM(1,1)Model and Its Application on Deformation Prediction(PDF)

《地球科学与环境学报》[ISSN:1672-6561/CN:61-1423/P]

Issue:
2012年第04期
Page:
102-106
Research Field:
工程地质
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Improvement of GM(1,1)Model and Its Application on Deformation Prediction
Author(s):
PENG Zheng-ming1;  WANG Teng-jun2;  CAO Dong-dong2;  XU Qiu-yan3
1. Gansu Institute of Investigation Design and Research of Water Resources and Hydropower, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China; 2. School of Geological Engineering and Surveying, Chang'an University,Xi'an 710054, Shaanxi, China; 3. Shaanxi Bureau of Coal Geological Exploration, Xi'an 710054, Shaanxi, China
Keywords:
grey model;  GM(1; 1)Model;  grey multiple correction model;  integral optimization;  quadratic fitting optimization;  residual error modification;  deformation prediction
PACS:
P694
DOI:
-
Abstract:
In order to improve the precision of prediction, GM(1,1)Model was modified by the means of integral optimization, quadratic fitting optimization and residual error modification methods step by step, and grey multiple correction model(GMCM)was built. The steps of modification included that background value was corrected by the means of integral optimization in order to reduce the error and improve the precision of prediction firstly; secondly, the parameters including developing coefficient and grey action were optimized by the means of quadratic fitting in order to make the parameters closer to the theoretical value; thirdly, residual error modification was properly done according to the prediction results in order to improve the whole precision of prediction; finally, GMCM, which was modified based on GM(1,1)Model, was built. Collapse of Zengzi Rock in Nanchuan of Chongqing was taken as an example, GMCM was built to simulate and predict the accumulated displacement of crag crack and was compared with GM(1,1)Model. The results of accuracy test showed that posterior error ratio of GMCM(0.082 39)was better than that of GM(1,1)Model(0.192 67), and average relative residual error ratio of GMCM(0.073 9)was better than that of GM(1,1)Model(0.259 6), so that the precision of prediction and reliability of GMCM were improved significantly.

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Last Update: 2012-12-20