|Table of Contents|

Time-delay Analysis and Prediction of Landslide Considering Precipitation and Reservoir Water Level—A Case Study of Xinpu Landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China(PDF)

《地球科学与环境学报》[ISSN:1672-6561/CN:61-1423/P]

Issue:
2021年第03期
Page:
621-631
Research Field:
地球信息科学
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Time-delay Analysis and Prediction of Landslide Considering Precipitation and Reservoir Water Level—A Case Study of Xinpu Landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China
Author(s):
HUANG Guan-wen;  WANG Jia-xing;  DU Yuan;  BAI Zheng-wei;  WANG Duo
(School of Geological Engineering and Geomatics, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710054, Shaanxi, China)
Keywords:
landslide prediction;  reservoir bank landslide;  cross correlation analysis;  time-delay analysis;  time-delay GM(1; 3);  gray model;  Xinpu landslide;  Three Gorges reservoir area
PACS:
P642; P228
DOI:
10.19814/j.jese.2021.01019
Abstract:
Rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuation are the main inducing factors of landslide deformation and instability, but the response of landslide displacement rate to such inducing factors is lagging, and affects the judgment and prediction of the movement state of landslide. In order to solve the problem that time-delay effect is not considered in the conventional prediction model, the GNSS displacement monitoring data of Xinpu landslide in Three Gorges reservoir area, rainfall data of Fengjie meteorological station and reservoir water level fluctuation data in Three Gorges reservoir area were used; through the time-delay cross correlation analysis of displacement rate, precipitation and reservoir water level elevation series of 9 GNSS points in the monitoring area, the time-delay parameters were determined; by using the multi-variable grey system theory, the time-delay GM(1,3)model was established to predict and verify the landslide displacement rate. The results show that the displacement rate of Xinpu landslide in Three Gorges reservoir area is significantly correlated with precipitation, and the response lag time to precipitation is about 5 days, the middle and rear parts of landslide are more affected by precipitation than the front edge, and the displacement rate is highly correlated with the reservoir water level elevation; the response lag time to reservoir water level fluctuation in Three Gorges reservoir area is about 31 days, the front edge of landslide is more obviously affected by the reservoir water level fluctuation, and the closer to Yangtze River, the shorter the lag time; using the time-delay GM(1,3)model, the goodness of fit of the model reaches 0.702; compared with GM(1,1)model and GM(1,3)model without time-delay factors, the prediction accuracy of time-delay GM(1,3)model is improved respectively 53.8% and 58.3%, and the mean absolute percentage error reduces by 7.19% and 7.47%, respectively. The time-delay GM(1,3)model has a certain engineering application value in the field of landslide displacement rate prediction and reservoir bank landslide disaster prevention and reduction.

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Last Update: 2021-05-01