|Table of Contents|

Evaluation of Slope Stability Based on Rainfall Intensity-duration—Taking Three Slopes in Anhui Province, China as Examples(PDF)

《地球科学与环境学报》[ISSN:1672-6561/CN:61-1423/P]

Issue:
2023年第06期
Page:
1380-1388
Research Field:
工程地质与环境灾害
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Evaluation of Slope Stability Based on Rainfall Intensity-duration—Taking Three Slopes in Anhui Province, China as Examples
Author(s):
ZHONG Kai1;  TAN Xiao-hui1*;  NIU Man-lan1;  XU Long1;  SUN Jian2;  WANG Duo2
(1. School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, Anhui, China; 2. Geo-environment Monitoring Station of Anhui Province, Hefei 230001, Anhui, China)
Keywords:
landslide hazard;  rainfall infiltration;  numerical simulation;  rainfall intensity;  rainfall threshold curve;  safety factor;  seepage analysis;  Anhui
PACS:
P642.2
DOI:
10.19814/j.jese.2023.02025
Abstract:
Landslides are one of the most common geological hazards, with rainfall being the main trigger for their occurrence. In order to find the impact of rainfall conditions on slope stability and determine the rainfall threshold curve, the saturated-unsaturated seepage and stability analysis of three small slopes in Anhui province was carried out using FLAC2D 7.0 numerical simulation software, and the changing trend of safety factor of slopes with rainfall intensity and duration was obtained. The results show that the influence of rainfall on slopes is limited; the rainfall intensity corresponding to the minimum safety factor of slopes during the rainfall infiltration process is the ultimate rainfall intensity, and the longer the rainfall duration, the smaller the ultimate rainfall intensity becomes and tends to stabilize; the changes in pore pressure and saturation at the monitoring location on the slope further verify that the slope tends to become saturated under ultimate rainfall intensity, resulting in the minimum safety factor. Subsequent rainfall has little effect on the safety factor of slope. To be on the safe side, a critical safety factor of 1.15 was assumed, and the corresponding rainfall intensity was defined as the critical rainfall intensity. Similar to the trend of ultimate rainfall intensity, the longer the rainfall duration, the smaller the critical rainfall intensity becomes and tends to stabilize. The critical rainfall intensities for the three small slopes tend to stabilize at 13, 12, and 16 mm?d-1, respectively, with corresponding rainfall durations of 5, 9, and 12 d. It is indicated that under the influence of long-term early-stage rainfall, a small amount of rainfall can cause slope instability and failure. Additionally, the critical rainfall intensity data of these three small slopes(simulated data points for geological disaster rainfall)were used to fit the rainfall threshold curve, and the accuracy of the rainfall threshold curve was validated with 435 sets of historical rainfall data for geological disasters in Anhui province from 2008 to 2022. The verification results show that over 95% of actual disaster rainfall data can be predicted by the rainfall threshold curve.

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Last Update: 2023-12-01