|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]陈南祥,张海丰,李松海.基于混沌时间序列的地下水位多步预测模型[J].地球科学与环境学报,2007,29(01):66-69.
　CHEN Nan-xiang,ZHANG Hai-feng,LI Song-hai.Multi-Steps Prediction Model of Underground Water Table Based on Chaotic Time Series[J].Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment,2007,29(01):66-69.
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《地球科学与环境学报》[ISSN:1672-6561/CN:61-1423/P]

卷:
第29卷
期数:
2007年第01期
页码:
66-69
栏目:
出版日期:
2007-03-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Multi-Steps Prediction Model of Underground Water Table Based on Chaotic Time Series
作者:
陈南祥1; 张海丰1; 李松海2
1.华北水利水电学院岩土工程系,河南郑州450008;2.黄河勘测规划设计有限公司,河南郑州450011
Author(s):
CHEN Nan-xiang1; ZHANG Hai-feng1; LI Song-hai2
1. Department of Geotechnical Engineering, North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, Zhengzhou 450008, Henan, China; 2. Yellow River Engineering Consulting Company, Zhengzhou 450011, Henan, China
关键词:
时间序列; 相空间重构; 混沌; 地下水位; Lyapunov指数; 关联维数
Keywords:
time series;  phase space reconstruction;  chaos;  underground water table;  Lyapunov exponent;  corre- lation dimension
分类号:
P641.1;TV124
DOI:
-
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
利用相空间重构技术,并借助G-P算法、C-C方法和Wolf方法从宁陵地区地下水位一维时间序列中提取 Lyapunov指数,结果表明此时间序列具有混沌特征。计算了宁陵地区地下水位时间序列的关联维数、时间延迟 和最大Lyapunov指数,将局域加权一阶多步预测模型应用于地下水位预测。预测表明,此模型可有效应用于地 下水位时间序列的多步预测。
Abstract:
Applying phase space reconstruction method, G-P arithmetic, C-C arithmetic and Wolf method, this paper distills Lyapunov exponents from one-dimension time series of underground water table in Ningling county. The result indicates that this time series possesses the character of chaos. The correlation dimension of time series, time delay and the largest Lyapunov exponent of underground water table in Ningling county are calculated. The add-weighted one-rank multi-steps prediction model is developed for the prediction of underground water table. The prediction indicates that this model can be easily used in multi-steps prediction of underground water table time series.

参考文献/References:

[1] Packard N H . Geomet ry f rom a Time Series [J] . Phy sica Rev Let t,1980,45(9):712-716.
[2] 宋 宇,陈家军,孙 雄. 地下水水 位时间序 列中的混 沌特征 [J] . 水文地质工程地质,2004,31(1):14-18.
[3] G rass berger P, Procacci a I. Measu ring th e St rangenes s of S trange At t ract ors [J] . Physi cs D, 1983,9 :189-208.
[4] Wol f A,Swinney H L, Vast an o J A. Determining Lyapunov Exp onent s f orm Time S eries [J] . Physics,1985,16 (D): 285-317.
[5] 陶诏灵,陈国华. 基于 C-C 方法的 Lyapu nov 指数计 算[J] . 南 京气象学院学报,2002,25(4):555-559.
[6] 吕金虎,陆君安,陈士华. 混沌时间序列 分析及其应用[M] . 武 汉 :武汉大学出版社,2002.
[7] 丁 涛,周惠成. 混沌时间序列局域预测方 法[J] . 系统工程与 电子技术,2004,26(3):338-340.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2006-04-01 基金项目:河南省杰出人才创新基金项目(04210005000) 作者简介:陈南祥(1958-),男,江苏张家港人,教授,从事水文地质与水文水资源研究。E-mail:chennanxiang@ncwu.edu.Cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01