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《地球科学与环境学报》[ISSN:1672-6561/CN:61-1423/P]

卷:

第45卷

期数:

2023年第04期

页码:

806-818

栏目:

环境与可持续发展专刊

出版日期:

2023-07-15

文章信息/Info

Title:

Multi-scenarios Simulation of Ningxia Land Use in China Based on SD-FLUS Model

文章编号:

1672-6561(2023)04-0806-13

作者:

耿思筱¹; 杨 志²; 党小虎^1*; 隋博洋¹; 曹小曙³; 4; 李 鹏⁵; 6; 郑智宇¹

(1. 西安科技大学 地质与环境学院,陕西 西安 710054; 2. 宁夏回族自治区水土保持监测总站,宁夏 银川 750002; 3. 陕西师范大学 自然资源与国土空间研究院,陕西 西安 710062; 4. 陕西师范大学 西北城镇化与国土环境空间模拟重点实验室,陕西 西安 710062; 5. 西安理工大学 西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,陕西 西安 710048; 6. 西安理工大学 旱区生态水文与侵蚀灾害防治国家林业和草原局重点实验室,陕西 西安 710048)

Author(s):

GENG Si-xiao¹;  YANG Zhi²;  DANG Xiao-hu^1*;  SUI Bo-yang¹;  CAO Xiao-shu³; 4;  LI Peng⁵; 6;  ZHENG Zhi-yu¹

(1. College of Geology and Environment, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710054, Shaanxi, China; 2. Ningxia Soil and Water Conservation Monitoring Station, Yinchuan 750002, Ningxia, China; 3. Natual Resources and National Land Use Research Institute, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710062, Shaanxi, China; 4. Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Environment Simulator in Northwest China, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710062, Shaanxi, China; 5. State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Gegion of China, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, Shaanxi, China; 6. Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration on Ecological Hydrology and Disaster Prevention in Arid Regions, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi'an 710048, Shaanxi, China)

关键词:

土地利用;  多情景模拟;  SD-FLUS模型;  SSP-RCP情景;  生态保护;  高质量发展;  宁夏

Keywords:

land use;  multi-scenario simulation;  SD-FLUS model;  SSP-RCP pathway;  ecological protection;  high-quality development;  Ningxia

分类号:

X321; F301.2

DOI:

-

文献标志码:

A

摘要:

土地利用变化会对区域发展及生态环境产生重要影响。通过分析宁夏2005～2020年土地利用变化,综合自上而下的系统动力学(SD)模型和自下而上的未来土地利用模拟(FLUS)模型(SD-FLUS模型),结合国际耦合模式比较计划第6阶段(CMIP6)提出的耦合共享社会经济路线和代表性浓度路线(SSP-RCP)情景,模拟了2035年不同情景下的土地利用变化。结果表明:①SD模型模拟的历史时期各类型土地利用面积误差均小于5%,FLUS模型模拟的2020年土地利用总体精度为93%,Kappa指数为0.90,模型精度和可靠性总体符合要求。②2035年所有情景下的建设用地均呈现增加趋势,增长速率从大到小的情景依次为SSP585情景、SSP245情景、SSP119情景; 所有情景下,林地面积增加,水域面积保持稳定,草地面积呈现不同程度的减少; 耕地面积在SSP585情景下增加,在SSP245情景下稳定,在SSP119情景下减少。③在SSP119情景下,建设用地扩张的同时,生态用地被挤占的程度最小,该情景兼顾社会经济发展和生态保护两种需求,可以作为宁夏黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展先行先试区的未来土地利用参考模式。

Abstract:

Land use change has a significant impact on regional development and ecological quality. The land use change in Ningxia from 2005 to 2020 was analyzed; and based on the scenarios of CMIP6 shared socioeconomic pathways and the representative concentration pathways(SSP-RCP), the system dynamics(SD)model and future land use simulation(FLUS)model were integrated to simulate the possible land use change of Ningxia in 2035. The results show that ① compared to the land use changes in the historical periods, the area error for the land use simulated by SD model is less than 5%, and the overall accuracy of FLUS model for the land use in 2020 is 93% with the Kappa index of 0.90, indicating that the model accuracy and robustness are satisfactory. ② The construction land areas simulated under all scenarios increase, and the scenarios are SSP585, SSP245 and SSP119 in the descending order of growth rate; the simulated area of forest increases with a constant water area and a reduced area of grassland in 2035; the simulated area of cultivated land increases under SSP585 scenario, remains stable under SSP245 scenario, and decreases under SSP119 scenario. ③ Under SSP119 scenario, the construction land expands with the least loss of ecological land, which takes a trade-off of socio-economic development and ecological protection into account, thus can be used as a reference paradigm for future land use in Ningxia, which is the pilot area of ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:

收稿日期:2022-08-19; 修回日期:2023-03-02投稿网址:http:∥jese.chd.edu.cn/
基金项目:宁夏回族自治区水土保持监测总站项目(GZ4-21-05-069/-ZC-F); 国家自然科学基金项目(42271309)
作者简介:耿思筱(1999-),女,陕西商洛人,工学硕士研究生,E-mail:g2384946023@163.com。
*通讯作者:党小虎(1968-),男,宁夏隆德人,教授,理学博士,E-mail:dangxh2018@xust.edu.cn。

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