|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]薛联青,刘远洪,张梦泽,等.基于样本熵的降雨和径流时间序列突变检验[J].地球科学与环境学报,2015,37(03):75-80.
　XUE Lian-qing,LIU Yuan-hong,ZHANG Meng-ze,et al.Mutation Test on Rainfall and Runoff Time Series Based on Sample Entropy[J].Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment,2015,37(03):75-80.
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基于样本熵的降雨和径流时间序列突变检验(PDF)
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《地球科学与环境学报》[ISSN:1672-6561/CN:61-1423/P]

卷:
第37卷
期数:
2015年第03期
页码:
75-80
栏目:
水资源与环境
出版日期:
2015-05-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Mutation Test on Rainfall and Runoff Time Series Based on Sample Entropy
文章编号:
1672-6561(2015)03-0075-06
作者:
薛联青; 刘远洪; 张梦泽; 王思琪; 李军
1. 河海大学 水文水资源学院，江苏 南京 210098； 2. 石河子大学 水利建筑工程学院，新疆 石河子 832003； 3. 河海大学 文天学院，安徽 马鞍山 243031；4. 泰安市水文局，山东 泰安 271000
Author(s):
XUE Lian-qing;  LIU Yuan-hong;  ZHANG Meng-ze;  WANG Si-qi;  LI Jun
1. School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China; 2. School of Water and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832003, Xinjiang, China; 3. School of Wentian, Hohai University, Ma’anshan 243031, Anhui, China; 4. Tai’an Bureau of Hydrology, Tai’an 271000, Shandong, China
关键词:
工程水文学; 时间序列; 突变检验; Mann-Kendall法; 样本熵; 复杂度; 湘江流域
Keywords:
engineering hydrology;  time series;  mutation test;  Mann-Kendall method;  sample entropy;  complexity;  Xiangjiang river basin
分类号:
P333;TV211.1
DOI:
-
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
传统的突变检验方法Mann-Kendall法主要基于线性和概率统计理论，对于高度复杂和非线性的水文时间序列检测能力不足。采用基于非线性动力学参数的样本熵方法，结合滑动技术和滑动移除技术，利用湘江流域1961~2009年多个气象站点日降雨资料和控制站湘潭站日径流资料，对降雨和径流时间序列进行突变检验。结果表明：日尺度降雨和径流时间序列样本熵值最小，复杂度最低，可预测性最高；径流分别在1966年、1983年、1992年以及2002年发生突变，降雨在1966年、1987年以及2002年发生突变；滑动样本熵与滑动移除样本熵相结合不仅能有效地识别突变，更能发现突变前后时间序列的动力学变化特征。
Abstract:
The traditional mutation test method including Mann-Kendall method, which is mainly based on the theories of linear, probability and statistic, is insufficient for testing the highly complex and nonlinear hydrological time series. Combined with moving and moving cut data technologies, sample entropy based on nonlinear dynamic parameter was applied for the mutation test on rainfall and runoff time series in Xiangjiang river basin. The test data included daily rainfall in several meteorological stations and daily runoff in Xiangtan control station of Xiangjiang river basin from 1961 to 2009. The results show that the sample entropy of daily rainfall and runoff time series is smallest, the complexity is lowest, and the predictability is highest; the mutations of runoff occur in 1966, 1983, 1992 and 2002, the mutations of rainfall occur in 1966, 1987 and 2002; the combination of moving sample entropy and moving cut data sample entropy can not only recognize the mutation effectively, but also discover the characteristics of dynamic variation before and after the mutation of time series.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2014-12-31
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41371052,U1203282,51269026);江苏省“青蓝工程”项目;兵团科技创新团队项目
作者简介:薛联青(1973-),女,新疆石河子人,河海大学教授,博士研究生导师,工学博士,E-mail:lqxue@hhu.edu.cn。
更新日期/Last Update: 2015-05-27