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《地球科学与环境学报》[ISSN:1672-6561/CN:61-1423/P]

卷:

第39卷

期数:

2017年第02期

页码:

286-300

栏目:

水资源与环境

出版日期:

2017-03-15

文章信息/Info

Title:

Explicit Statistic Meteorological Early-warning Model of Geological Hazards in Xinjiang, China Based on the Genesis Theory of Endogenic and Exogenic Coupling

文章编号:

1672-6561(2017)02-0286-15

作者:

李守定; 白亚恒; 姜越; 王占和; 魏文慧; 李晓; 刘丽楠

1.华北水利水电大学 资源与环境学院，河南 郑州 450045； 2.中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所 中国科学院页岩气与地质工程重点实验室，北京 100029； 3.中国科学院大学 地球科学学院，北京 100049； 4.新疆维吾尔自治区地质环境监测院，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830000

Author(s):

LI Shou-ding;  BAI Ya-heng;  JIANG Yue;  WANG Zhan-he;  WEI Wen-hui;  LI Xiao;  LIU Li-nan

1. School of Resources and Environment, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, Henan, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Shale Gas and Geoengineering, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; 3. College of Earth Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 4. Geological Environment Monitoring Institute of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumchi 830000, Xinjiang, China

关键词:

地质灾害; 气象预警; 内外动力耦合; 显式统计模型; 地理信息系统; 地质环境指标; 乘积范式; 新疆

Keywords:

geological hazard;  meteorological early-warning;  endogenic and exogenic coupling;  explicit statistic model;  GIS;  geological environmental index;  product form;  Xinjiang

分类号:

P694

DOI:

-

文献标志码:

A

摘要:

地质灾害气象预警是有效减轻地质灾害造成损失的重要手段，其核心是研究气象条件与地质灾害危险性的时空关系，即地质灾害气象预警模型。新疆地质构造复杂，内外动力作用强烈，是中国地质灾害发育严重的地区之一。基于地质灾害的地球内外动力耦合作用成因理论，建立了新疆地质灾害气象预警区划；利用地理信息系统(GIS)平台，优选内外动力地质作用指标，依据专家经验，确定各类要素权重，计算地质环境指标值，构建了基于内外动力耦合成因理论的新疆地质灾害气象预警乘积范式的显式统计模型；在此基础上，进行历史地质灾害点校验，获得了与实际地质灾害发生情况较为一致的地质灾害气象预警结果。

Abstract:

Meterological early-warning is the key issue that arises during the preventions of geological hazards. A model of meterological early-warning refers to the study of space-time relationships between meterological conditions and risks of geological hazards, which is the core of early-warning. There are serious geological hazards in Xinjiang, which is taken as the example for the model study. Due to its own geological and geomorphological conditions, the geological hazards are controlled by strong endogenic and exogenic coupling effects. Early-warning of geological hazards in Xinjiang is divided into several zones based on the genesis theory of endogenic and exogenic coupling. A explicit statistic model with selected optimum indexes is completed based on geographic information system (GIS). In the model, the weights of early-warning indexes of geological hazards are determined according to the experts’ experience, and the values of geological environment indexes are calculated. Then, the model is consistently verified by historical geological hazards, namely the results of early-warning are the same.

参考文献/References:

-

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:

收稿日期:2016-11-14
基金项目:新疆维吾尔自治区国土资源厅科研项目(XJDZFZ-XX2013);国家自然科学基金项目(41202217)
作者简介:李守定(1979-),男,河南罗山人,中国科学院大学教授,博士研究生导师,工学博士,E-mail:lsdlyh@mail.iggcas.ac.cn。

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更新日期/Last Update: 2017-03-31